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Forecasting Australia's 2019 Election with PyMC3
--client
pyconau
--show
pyconau2019
--room cockle_bay 14907 --force
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Marks
Author(s):
Martin Burgess
Location
Cockle Bay
Date
aug Fri 02
Days Raw Files
Start
13:30
First Raw Start
13:03
Duration
0:30:0
Offset
0:26:41
End
14:00
Last Raw End
14:03
Chapters
00:00
0:01:33
0:26:32
0:29:13
Total cuts_time
29 min.
https://2019.pycon-au.org/talks/forecasting-australias-2019-election-with-pymc3
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Description:
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Can we predict the result of an Australian election before it occurs? How certain of the outcome can we be? My talk will use the 2019 Australian federal election as a case study to provide an entry-level introduction to the benefits of probabilistic forecasting and PyMC3.
Comment:
production notes
2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts
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13:03:19 - 13:30:54 ( 00:27:35 )
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vlc ~/Videos/veyepar/pyconau/pyconau2019/dv/cockle_bay/2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts :start-time=00.0 --audio-desync=0
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Cut List
13:03:19
seconds: 0.0
Wall: 13:03:19
Duration
00:29:59
13:33:18
seconds: 1655.0
Wall: 13:30:54
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
Split:
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2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts
Apply:
13:30:54 - 13:31:45 ( 00:00:51 )
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13:03:19 -
E:
13:33:18
D:
00:29:59
(
Start:
1655.0) (
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vlc ~/Videos/veyepar/pyconau/pyconau2019/dv/cockle_bay/2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts :start-time=01655.0 --audio-desync=0
Raw File
Cut List
13:03:19
seconds: 1655.0
Wall: 13:30:54
Duration
00:29:59
13:33:18
seconds: 1706.0
Wall: 13:31:45
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
Split:
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delete
2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts
Apply:
13:31:45 - 13:33:18 ( 00:01:33 )
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13:03:19 -
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13:33:18
D:
00:29:59
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Start:
1706.0)
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vlc ~/Videos/veyepar/pyconau/pyconau2019/dv/cockle_bay/2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts :start-time=01706.0 --audio-desync=0
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Cut List
13:03:19
seconds: 1706.0
Wall: 13:31:45
Duration
00:29:59
13:33:18
seconds: 0.0
Wall: 13:03:19
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
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2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts
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13:33:19 - 13:58:18 ( 00:24:59 )
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00:29:59
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Cut List
13:33:19
seconds: 0.0
Wall: 13:33:19
Duration
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14:03:18
seconds: 1499.0
Wall: 13:58:18
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
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2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts
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13:58:18 - 14:00:59 ( 00:02:41 )
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Cut List
13:33:19
seconds: 1499.0
Wall: 13:58:18
Duration
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14:03:18
seconds: 1660.0
Wall: 14:00:59
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
Split:
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delete
2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts
Apply:
14:00:59 - 14:01:03 ( 00:00:04 )
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E:
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D:
00:29:59
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vlc ~/Videos/veyepar/pyconau/pyconau2019/dv/cockle_bay/2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts :start-time=01660.0 --audio-desync=0
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Cut List
13:33:19
seconds: 1660.0
Wall: 14:00:59
Duration
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14:03:18
seconds: 1664.0
Wall: 14:01:03
Comments:
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mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
Split:
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delete
2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts
Apply:
14:01:03 - 14:03:18 ( 00:02:15 )
S:
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E:
14:03:18
D:
00:29:59
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Start:
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vlc ~/Videos/veyepar/pyconau/pyconau2019/dv/cockle_bay/2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts :start-time=01664.0 --audio-desync=0
Raw File
Cut List
13:33:19
seconds: 1664.0
Wall: 14:01:03
Duration
00:29:59
14:03:18
seconds: 0.0
Wall: 13:33:19
Comments:
mp4
mp4.m3u
dv.m3u
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2019-08-02/13_03_19.ts
2019-08-02/13_33_19.ts
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